This study aimed to make projections, for the next 30 years, of future numbers of older people with cognitive impairment, their demand for long-term care services and the future costs of their care under a range of specified assumptions. Cognitive impairment is one of the manifestations of dementia. The most common dementia syndrome is Alzheimer’s Disease (AD), followed by vascular dementia (Henderson and Jorm, 2000).

It also set out to explore the factors that are likely to affect future long-term care expenditure associated with cognitive impairment. These factors include, not only future numbers of older people and future prevalence rates of cognitive impairment, but also trends in household composition, provision of informal care, patterns of care services and the unit costs of care.

January 2003